Why Netflix is Failing: 3 Reasons You’re Watching Baby Reindeer All Wrong

Netflix is a logistics company masquerading as a creative studio.

The $270 billion giant has a problem. It isn’t the price of the subscription. It isn’t the password sharing crackdown. It is the content.

Netflix has mastered the "Binge." They have failed at the "Memory."

I spent ten years analyzing media cycles. I watched the rise of the algorithm. I watched the death of the movie star.

Last week, I watched Baby Reindeer. Then I watched the internet tear it apart.

You think Baby Reindeer is a success story for Netflix. You are wrong. It is a warning shot. It is proof that the algorithm is broken and the "Netflix Style" is dying.

Here is why you’re watching it all wrong.

The Death of the $200M Blockbuster

Netflix spent $160 million on Red Notice. They spent $200 million on The Gray Man.

Do you remember a single line of dialogue from those movies? No. You don't. You remember the Ryan Reynolds face. You remember the explosion. Then you clicked "Next."

Baby Reindeer cost a fraction of that. It is a filmed play. It is raw. It is ugly. It is uncomfortable.

I watched it and felt sick. That is the point.

Netflix’s "failing" is their obsession with high-gloss, low-stakes content. They have spent years polishing the edges off stories to make them "global." They wanted content that works in Paris, Peoria, and Perth.

What they got was "Slop."

Baby Reindeer succeeded because it ignored the Netflix playbook. It didn’t try to be "likable." It didn’t use a "Save the Cat" screenplay structure. It was a creator’s trauma, unfiltered.

The industry is learning a hard lesson: Production value is no longer a moat.

If I can get more emotion from a man sitting in a dark room than from a $200 million CGI space battle, the studio model is dead. You are watching a shift from "Cinematic" to "Visceral."

Stop looking at the budget. Start looking at the blood.

The Algorithmic Blind Spot

The Netflix algorithm is a liar.

It predicts what you will click. It cannot predict what you will feel.

I look at my "Recommended" list and see a graveyard of generic thumbnails. Neon colors. Big faces. Action poses. It’s all designed to get the 2-second hover.

Netflix didn't "know" Baby Reindeer would be a hit. They didn't push it. It didn't have a massive billboard in Times Square on day one.

It grew via "The Shiver."

"The Shiver" is when a piece of content is so disturbing or real that you have to text someone immediately. You can’t automate "The Shiver."

Netflix is failing because they have optimized for "Time Spent" instead of "Cultural Impact."

They want you to stay on the app for 4 hours. They don't care if those 4 hours are spent in a vegetative state.

But "Time Spent" is a commodity. TikTok has more of it. YouTube has more of it.

The only thing Netflix can offer is the "Watercooler Moment." But by relying on an algorithm to greenlight shows, they have killed the human intuition required to find the next Baby Reindeer.

If you’re watching this show and thinking "Netflix is back," think again. This show is a "glitch" in their system. It is a human story that survived a machine-driven world.

The Parasocial Trap

You are watching Baby Reindeer as a "True Crime" detective. That is your biggest mistake.

The internet spent the last month doxxing the real people behind the characters. They found "Martha." They found the "Producer." They turned a story about the cycle of abuse into a scavenger hunt.

Netflix leaned into this. They didn't stop it. They didn't protect the "True" in "True Story."

This is the "Parasocial Trap."

Netflix is failing to realize that by turning real trauma into "Content," they are destroying the very thing that makes the story powerful.

I see the comments. I see the TikToks. People aren't talking about the themes of self-hatred or the complexity of being a victim. They are talking about "The Real Martha’s" Facebook posts.

This is the "Social Media-fication" of prestige TV.

When you watch Baby Reindeer as a mystery to be solved rather than a tragedy to be felt, you are participating in the "Fast Fashion" of human emotion.

Netflix is happy. They get the engagement. They get the headlines.

But the "Brand" suffers. Netflix becomes the place where people go to gawk, not to think.

HBO used to be "It’s not TV, it’s HBO." Netflix is becoming "It’s not a story, it’s a Thread."

The Insight

The future of media isn't "Studios." It is "Unfiltered Creators" with a hosting platform.

My prediction: Netflix will stop trying to be a studio by 2027.

They will become a high-end version of YouTube. They will stop trying to produce "The Gray Man 4." They will start looking for the weirdest, darkest, most specific creators on the planet and give them $5 million and a camera.

The "Middle-Man Writer" is dead. The "Development Executive" is dead.

The audience is tired of "Content." They want "Truth."

Even if that truth is messy. Even if it leads to a lawsuit. Even if it makes the audience look at themselves and hate what they see.

The era of the "Polished Hit" is over. The era of the "Ugly Truth" has begun.

Netflix is failing because they are still trying to be "Hollywood." But the world doesn't want Hollywood anymore. They want the guy in the bar who has a story that will ruin your week.

What’s the last show that actually made you feel something uncomfortable?